To the right, you can see what our KOIN Local 6 forecast model (called the RPM) expects as total snow between late Monday night March 12, 2012 and early on the morning of the 13th.
The good news — or bad news — depending on how you see it: the days this time of year are just too warm for anything but temporary accumulation during overnight and early morning hours. Now, here are my latest thoughts on how this breaks down:
4-7pm – The heaviest rain of the day should move through the metro area and about as far south as Salem. We’ll have to watch for any sudden wind gusts that could bring down more trees in our water-logged soil.
8-10pm – It looks like the colder air really comes in above us, gradually switching our area over from rain to snow. The higher elevations make this switch first, the lowest elevations last.
10pm – 2am – This looks like prime time for snow. All of our forecast tools agree we’ll see a good chunk of steady snow, down to the valley floor, during much of this time frame. This reminds me of what happened March 1st. Lots of places will get light accumulations, with a few inches possible in hilly areas of town. A little bit of elevation goes a long way.
After 2am – Most areas see just intermittent snow showers and a lot of the roads on the valley floor melt off any snow they had during the steady snow earlier in the night. Valley floor locations are in the mid-30s…but hilly areas of town will probably be around freezing. So these areas could be tricky for the morning commute. Our schools in hilly areas could face delays. Probably not everywhere…but at least some places. Exact locations will depend on the areas hardest hit by snow.
Morning commute: As of now, I believe most roads are wet. But hilly areas–or any places hit by significant early morning snow showers–could find slushy commutes at times. That’s why KOIN Local 6 is going on early tomorrow, at 4:30am. Just to be safe–and keep you that way!