Northwest Summer 2011 – Bruce Sussman’s Summer Outlook

Would you believe there’s only one part of the country forecast to have a ‘drier than normal summer’?

And we’re living in it!

That’s right. NOAA seasonal forecasters expect the dry summer places like Oregon & Southwest Washington to be drier than usual for July, August & September. The ‘B’ on this summer forecast image stands for ‘below normal precipitation.’

So get your sprinklers ready.

Bruce’s Temperature & Sunshine Outlook For Northwest Summer 2011

I’ve heard two things about last summer. The first crowd says, “That was a bummer of a summer, it never really got hot.” And the second crowd says, “Last summer was totally perfect because it never really got hot.”

Uh, one of these crowds is going to be disappointed with what I’m typing here!

1. Our spring pattern of cooler than average weather was something I expected, talked about on KOIN Local 6 News and it’s something I expect to last at least through the end of June.
2. I expect our overall pattern to change to classic northwest summer (like we’re used to) no later than mid-July and hopefully a bit earlier. What I’ve termed a ‘La Nina hangover’ is the reason this shift may happen later than usual. La Nina is gone but its impacts on the air pattern often fades more slowly. That’s the case this year.
3. Although we’ll have some ‘morning clouds last until 4pm’ episodes I believe it will be a much more rare event than last summer. And that = a warmer summer!
4. It’s impossible to predict heatwaves or 90+ degree days until we get closer to specific heatwave patterns. So I cannot say much on that.
5. During summer 2010, the rainy season and fall temperatures started in September. This year, I believe we’ll enjoy a classic late summer or early fall surprise with some nice sunny and occasionally warm days into October.

So there you have it. I think we’ll look back at summer 2011 in places like Portland, Oregon and Vancouver, Washington and say, “That was a lot warmer than last year!”

I’d love to hear which camp you’re in: bummed out…or looking forward to it…