Update: we know which forecast model was right – in this case – none of them!
There’s a saying: “If you have one clock, you know exactly what time it is. If you have more than one, you’re never exactly sure!”
You know how it is, right? The clock on the microwave never matches up with the one on the oven and your car could be several minutes off from those. Which one is these is the ‘real’ time again? We may never know.
That’s the situation we have on our hands as we go into Tuesday evening and Wednesday when it comes to snow in the I-5 Corridor including Portland and Vancouver.
We have several forecast models created by supercomputers that paint pictures of what the weather is supposed to do. And they’re conflicting as of Tuesday afternoon.
One of them is definite on significant accumulating snow for the metro area. The maps here mean 1″ of snow for Portland by Sunrise Wednesday (first map), with 4″ on the ground by Wednesday evening (second map).
Another model gives Portland no more than about 1″ total for the time frame, with Salem and Eugene picking up the 3-4″ of snow instead as the system drops south and east after just a glancing blow to Portland.
This is all linked to the track of the storm system and how far north it makes it. It is likely to be a slow mover, keeping the snow going for quite awhile Wednesday wherever it sets up.
What we know:
- East wind fires up again Tuesday night – brrr!
- Freezing temperatures will lead to slick sidewalks and some slick roads, etc.
- Tuesday evening rain will likely switch to snow for some of us
- Much of the I-5 Corridor will turn white on Wednesday but it’s unclear who gets the significant accumulations
So plan on cold, plan on at least some travel challenges and just know that some of us will have a snow day Wednesday. We’ll need more time to determine exactly who gets to have (another) one of those!