“It’s always somethin’…” Do you know someone who makes that comment about situations they come across?
Well, in weather it IS always somethin’ with each new season. It seems to me the La Nina winter of 2010-2011 is letting us in on what that somethin’ is going to be!
You’ve probably noticed our wet stretch we have underway and maybe heard how the Pineapple Express could slam us again this weekend with a whole bunch more rain. We shouldn’t be surprised. This winter, we should expect it based on what’s already happened.
Two Trends Appearing & Repeating This Winter
- long stretches of unusually dry (and often cool) weather
- shorter but very distinct stretches of unusually wet (and warm) weather
Many winters the trend is a couple of big rains a month followed by regular run-of-the-mill rain most days of the week. You know the drill: we all start whining, right?
This Year Trends Are Different-Check It Out
- Dry – 7 days – December 1-7 (.47″ of rain)
- Wet – 7 days – December 8-14 (4.41″ of rain)
- Dry – 10days – December 15-24 (1.03″ of rain)
- Wet – 5days – December 25-29 (2.44″ of rain)
- Dry – 13 days – December 30 to January 11 (.56″ of rain)
- Wet – 5 to 6 days – my forecast January 12-16 (forecast to be almost 4″ of rain for Portland)
And…this just in: our forecast simulations are hinting at another stretch of cooler, dry weather starting on the 17th or 18th of January. Hmmm.
Like they say in the stock market, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” But it’s my experience that once the trends are set for a season they gnerally keep repeating. So, keep your eye out for these trends as we go through the rest of our Northwest winter!
UPDATE as of 1/19/11: the trend continues
- wet – 7 days – January 12-18 – 3.40″ of rain (what actually happened compared to final bullet point above)