I keep thinking about what it says on my 401k statement: past performance is no guarantee of future results.
It’s true in the stock market. And it’s true with any kind of northwest weather trend.
But I also know this much from digging through the record books: the last time we had a bunch of 80 degree days in May, it did in fact, turn into a long, hot summer!
Looking Back At May 2009 – And What Happened After That
The last time Portland even hit 80 degrees during the month of May was back in 2009. During May 2010 our warmest day was 76. And during May 2011 our warmest day was 74. Both of those years turned out to be fairly cool summers and there was a lot of whining!
But May 2009 was a hot one with seven days in the 80s. Well above the average of four days. And that seemed to set the tone for the entire summer! June 2009 was much hotter than usual. And we smashed records in so many ways in July 2009 that even those of us who love hot weather had more than our fill. 14 days were 90 or hotter. Amazing! In fact, we almost tied Portland’s all time record high of 107 degrees. And that was during a brutal hot stretch:
- Portland – July 25th – 90 degrees
- Portland – July 26th – 93 degrees
- Portland – July 27th – 103 degrees
- Portland – July 28th – 106 degrees
- Portland – July 29th – 106 degrees
- Portland – July 30th – 96 degrees
- Portland – July 31st – 94 degrees
Is this heat wave ringing any bells? In my fifteen years of forecasting in Portland–it’s the most brutal I’ve seen.
And to think that it all started with a bunch of unusually hot days in May. Hmmm.
So in the case of this May’s heat, hopefully past performance is not a guarantee of future results!
Hi Bruce; Looks like here in Vancouver BC we’ll have to wait a little yet before we see our first 80F. (I recorded 79.5F yesterday). You had some impressive statistics from 2009. I’m not so positive that a warm May leads to a hot summer, however: I recall May 1983 and 1995 both were very warm, yet the summers those years were not very good here. Were they in Portland?
Roland–so I looked at 1983, May was pretty nice followed by our typical dismal June then a kind of average summer. 1995 didn’t impress too much, either–although it was warmer than average. But May 2005 was our 5th hottest on record–and it turned out to be a hot summer that year and that heat even lasted into early fall.
So if there’s one thing we can count on? The fact we can’t count on anything when it comes to the weather! Sorry you guys didn’t make 80. So close, so close!
Surely you jest. You must mean, past performance is a guarantee of future results… 🙂
Ha-ha-ha…nice comment Tiffany! We’ll see what happens.
It just means a dismal summer for the beach. boo Guess I’ll go visit my dotter in Texas and get some sun. (Actually sit in the air conditioning.) 🙂
Thanks for the response, Bruce! The summer of 2005 was sunny and dry here too- after July 16th. Up til that date, it was showery and cool. It’s only about 270 straight miles from Portland to Vancouver(BC), but sometimes it can make a difference!