Early Wednesday Morning Update: one more round of heavy rain and gusty winds needs to pass through western Oregon & Washington. This should happen commute time or a bit later this morning. After the cold front passes through, winds die off and we should quickly dry out. We’re almost there!
6:45PM Update: We’ll see rain, heay at times this evening. We’ll keep adding to Portland’s record rain total: 2.03″ today and counting!
During my original post on this storm over the weekend, I mentioned that wherever the ‘bulls-eye’ of rain sets up, that’s where the greatest flood risk will usually be.
Even though I call it a bulls-eye, it’s really an area where winds in the storm are energizing that part of the storm and increasing the rain we get from it.
This area was forecast to lift north into Washington today by every single computer forecasting tool out there. And yet, here’s the 10AM radar image from KOIN Local 6. The heaviest rain stretches from about Lincoln City and across the Coast Range to Salem and the Portland-Vancouver metro area. That’s your bulls-eye right now!
Rain Totals Since Midnight, Under The Bulls-eye
- 1.18″ Lincoln City
- 1.20″ Portland Airport (PDX)
- 1.25″ Hillsboro
- 1.27″ Northeast Portland
- 4.44″ Mt. Hebo – Coast Range (this site also had an incredible gust to 97mph today!)
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The question is–what does the storm do next? It’s starting a slow northward move right now. All we can do in a situation like this is watch it–and see how far north it goes. But guess what? The more north it goes, the stronger the winds are likely to be. We still have not had our 40-50mph gusts in the valley & metro area. They become more likely if the heaviest rain lifts into Washington.
Morning and Noon Meteorologist Matt Brode is staying late and I’m coming in early so we have everything always covered for you on KOIN Local 6.
It’s going to be an interesting rest of the day, for sure!
Hi Bruce: As of 7am this morning, I measured about 2.20 inches since it all began early Monday. We were lucky to get a break of sunshine yesterday in the late morning, but the rain really kicked in here overnight as the storm moved northward.
Bruce,
I am a “novice” weather watcher in Amboy WA. I downloaded the pinpoint weather app a couple days ago and it is surprisingly accurate. The resolution is close enough that a quick look out the window as the heavier rain showers (in yellow) had passed proved the data accurate! I noticed also that there were several “tornadic” indications to the northeast of me and again a quick look out the window at some dark clouds verified this as well. We have the benefit of a territorial view and therefore plenty of sky. The next test will be whether or not it picks up snow at our elevation (approx 740′).
Cudo’s to you and your team at KOIN for coming up with an otherwise “gee whiz” yet use full tool!
Note: I have a Davis Vantage Pro 2 weather station where I typically measure twice the rainfall annually as compared to PDX. Yesterday however I only measured about 1.7 inches???? Either we missed the brunt of the storm or there is a maple lead plugging the rain bucket!!
Regards,
Barry
Barry–Thanks for the compliments and I’m glad you like the PinPoint Weather App as much as I do. I’m always using that thing when I’m not in the office and it will be fun to see how it does with snow.
As for the rain, yep, I think you guys were missed this time around. Kelso’s 3 day total was only about 2″ so your total makes sense. Which as you point out is a little unusual. I’m sure you’ll out do us down here the rest of the rainy season. Have a great Thanksgiving!
Hi Bruce,
Help! I am in so much trouble. Before my husband could watch the DVR recording of your WINTER WEATHER FORECAST, I accidentally erased it. I went to the KOIN website and cannot find it !
Is there any way you can help me? He is most interested in your prediction for long term valley floor snow this winter and temperatures. He is one of your biggest fans and I am is soooo much trouble for erasing it!
Sign: A wife in the dog house
Thanks!
Dear ‘Wife In The Doghouse’ –
I’ll get the actual story posted to my blog next week. But in the meantime, I think odds are tilted toward at least two valley snow events and I think we’ll likely top our ‘average’ snow total of about 5″ in Portland-Vancouver.
La Nina does not mean big snow for the valley–in fact the last few times La Nina has meant less snow than average.
But this time it’s a weaker La Nina — and there are some comparisons that can be made with 2008 (our really, really big snow year) so those two factors combined with some other trends have me talked into a least a little more snow than typical.
We’ll see. Have a great Thanksgiving–hope this gets you out of the dog house!